This Week in Brief
- AAR Week 39, ended October 3, 2026: U.S. rail traffic totaled 529,712 carloads and intermodal units, up 5.1% year over year: 230,711 carloads (+2.4%) and 299,001 containers and trailers (+7.4%). (AJOT; Progressive Railroading)
- Volume eased from the prior week. Compared with Week 38, carloads fell 5,076 (−2.2%) and intermodal fell 2,609 (−0.9%). Year to date, combined traffic is 19,988,290 units, up 3.5%.
- Metallic ores and metals led the named commodity groups at 23,387 carloads, up 12.8%, followed by petroleum and petroleum products, up 12.2%. Grain was the weakest at 21,170 carloads, down 5.2%, with the harvest running behind its five-year pace. (Progressive Railroading)
- The October rail fuel surcharge is $0.59 a mile, up 11 cents from September and 40 cents from a year ago. USDA expects November to exceed the record $0.61 set in July 2026. (USDA AMS)
- Hurricane Isaias shut in 62.89% of Gulf of Mexico oil production by midday October 8, with about 2.7 million barrels a day of refining capacity in or near its path. Landfall was forecast near the Florida–Alabama border late October 9. (Transport Topics)
- The STB found BNSF, CSX, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific revenue adequate for 2025 against a 9.79% industry cost of capital. (Railway Age)
- Wafra acquired Liberty Development Partners and invested in Gulf Inland Logistics Park and CMC Railroad, a 3,900-acre rail-served park near Houston with Union Pacific and BNSF interchange. (Railway Age)
- Sides are forming in the UP–NS merger case ahead of the November 18 comment deadline. IBEW became the seventh union to oppose it, Shintech filed in support, and ASLRRA is writing up conditions it wants attached. (Progressive Railroading; FreightWaves)
The Numbers
U.S. Headline
AAR U.S. rail traffic, Week 39, ended October 3, 2026
| Measure | Week 39 (Oct 3) | Week 38 (Sep 26) | WoW | WoW % | YoY as published | YTD, 39 weeks | YTD YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carloads | 230,711 | 235,787 | −5,076 | −2.2% | +2.4% | 8,910,593 | +2.7% |
| Intermodal units | 299,001 | 301,610 | −2,609 | −0.9% | +7.4% | 11,077,697 | +4.2% |
| Total traffic | 529,712 | 537,397 | −7,685 | −1.4% | +5.1% | 19,988,290 | +3.5% |
Week-over-week columns are calculated from the two published AAR weekly releases. Year-over-year and year-to-date percentages are as published. AAR's U.S. figures exclude the U.S. operations of CPKC, CN and GMXT.
North America
AAR, nine reporting railroads, week ended October 3, 2026
| Region | Carloads | YoY | Intermodal | YoY | Combined | YTD combined | YTD YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 230,711 | +2.4% | 299,001 | +7.4% | 529,712 | 19,988,290 | +3.5% |
| Canada | 92,532 | −0.8% | 73,192 | +0.7% | 165,724 | 6,418,077 | +1.3% |
| Mexico | 11,825 | +6.4% | 14,179 | +36.7% | 26,004 | 993,284 | +7.2% |
| North America | 335,068 | +1.6% | 386,372 | +6.9% | 721,440 | 27,399,651 | +3.1% |
The three countries sum exactly to the published North American totals for both carloads and intermodal. Canada includes CN's and CPKC's U.S. and Mexican operations; Mexico covers GMXT and excludes CPKC's Mexican operation.
Commodity Groups, Ranked by Year-over-Year Change
AAR U.S. carloads by commodity group, Week 39
| Commodity group | Week 39 cars | Cars vs PY | YoY | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallic ores and metals | 23,387 | +2,647 | +12.8% | 10.1% |
| Petroleum and petroleum products | 11,804 | +1,286 | +12.2% | 5.1% |
| Coal | 58,163 | +1,627 | +2.9% | 25.2% |
| Chemicals | 32,891 | −49 | −0.1% | 14.3% |
| Farm products excluding grain, and food | 16,935 | −720 | −4.1% | 7.3% |
| Grain | 21,170 | −1,160 | −5.2% | 9.2% |
| Forest products, nonmetallic minerals, motor vehicles and parts, and other (combined) | 66,361 | — | — | 28.8% |
| Total carloads | 230,711 | — | +2.4% | 100.0% |
Note: Published summaries broke out six of AAR's ten commodity groups with carload counts, so forest products, nonmetallic minerals, motor vehicles and parts, and other are shown combined. Forest products was reported up 7.5%. One outlet listed coal as down 0.1%. That figure belongs to chemicals; coal rose 2.9%.
By Railroad
STB Part 1250 total weekly volume by carrier, week ended October 3, 2026
| Carrier | BNSF | UP | NS | CSX | CN (U.S.) | CPKC (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Part 1250 cars, including containers and trailers | 204,045 | 178,793 | 144,131 | 132,521 | 45,591 | 29,622 |
Basis note. Part 1250 "carloads" include containers and trailers, so they cannot be compared with a carrier's own carload count, and the carriers are not summed because interchange traffic would be counted twice. CN and CPKC report only U.S. operations to the STB. Source: USDA AgTransport, STB Part 1250 data, via IndexBox.
Freight Rail Commodities by Railroad
STB Part 1250 originated cars, week ended October 3, 2026
| Commodity (originated) | BNSF | UP | NS | CSX | CN (U.S.) | CPKC (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Containers | 104,578 | 71,709 | 63,237 | 50,053 | 3,553 | 4,041 |
| Coal | 21,504 | 14,031 | 10,905 | 10,887 | 1,188 | n/p |
| Chemicals | 6,704 | 18,036 | 3,030 | 4,803 | 3,085 | 2,010 |
| Crushed stone, sand and gravel | 4,074 | 7,246 | 3,435 | 5,201 | 1,791 | 2,379 |
| Petroleum products | 5,753 | 3,897 | n/p | 1,344 | n/p | 1,299 |
| Metals | 1,643 | 1,626 | 4,124 | 2,290 | n/p | n/p |
| Metallic ores | 2,295 | n/p | n/p | n/p | 8,779 | n/p |
| Fertilizer | 972 | 1,541 | n/p | 1,357 | n/p | n/p |
Originated cars only; do not sum. "n/p" means not published, not zero. CN and CPKC figures are U.S. operations only.
Grain by Railroad
USDA grain carloads by carrier, week ended September 26, 2026
| Carrier | Week ended Sep 26 | Same week 2025 | YoY | In AAR U.S. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNSF | 13,167 | 13,544 | −2.8% | Yes |
| Union Pacific | 6,445 | 5,607 | +14.9% | Yes |
| Norfolk Southern | 2,202 | 1,931 | +14.0% | Yes |
| CSX | 1,737 | 1,527 | +13.8% | Yes |
| Subtotal, AAR-reporting carriers | 23,551 | 22,609 | +4.2% | Matches AAR |
| CPKC (U.S.) | 4,595 | 2,834 | +62.2% | No |
| CN (U.S.) | 1,716 | 1,041 | +64.8% | No |
| U.S. total | 29,862 | 26,484 | +12.8% |
The four AAR-reporting carriers sum to 23,551, exactly AAR's U.S. grain figure for Week 38. This USDA table runs one week behind the AAR week above. USDA put the all-carrier total up 8% on the week and 22% above the three-year average. Source: USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report, October 8, Table 3.
Service Metrics
USDA grain service metrics by carrier, week ended September 25, 2026
| Carrier | Origin dwell (hrs) | Last 4 weeks | Same 4 weeks 2025 | Train speed (mph) | Unfilled grain car orders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | 26.2 | 30.0 | 27.9 | 19.0 | 0 |
| CN | 24.1 | 25.6 | 28.5 | 18.7 | 0 |
| CPKC | 23.2 | 25.3 | 18.9 | 21.3 | 1,159 |
| Norfolk Southern | 22.9 | 21.9 | 11.3 | 24.0 | 5 |
| BNSF | 22.9 | 23.6 | 17.5 | 22.5 | 954 |
| Union Pacific | 10.9 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 22.8 | 82 |
| Total unfilled orders | 2,200 |
Unfilled manifest grain car orders sum to the published total of 2,200. These figures lag the AAR week by more than a week. The STB's weekly EP 724 system service data were not available in time for this issue. Source: USDA AMS GTR, October 8, Table 4b.
Combined volume +5.1% y/y on a clean comp, −1.4% sequentially off a strong Week 38. Intermodal is carrying it: +7.4% vs. +2.4% for carloads, and the spread holds YTD (+4.2% vs. +2.7%). That is truck conversion more than industrial production. TD Cowen's 3Q survey has 32% of shippers shifting volume to rail (20% in 2Q), citing diesel and truck capacity.
Metals (+12.8%) is corroborated by AISI: raw steel +4.8% y/y for the same week at 78.3% utilization. Petroleum (+12.2%) is pre-Isaias; any storm effect lands in Weeks 40–41.
Grain (−5.2%) is harvest timing. USDA had grain carloads +13% y/y the prior week, and storage is 1.28 bbu below average. Watch car supply: CPKC and BNSF hold 95% of unfilled orders.
Commodity Watch
Grain and Agriculture
USDA's Crop Progress report for the week ended October 4 put the corn harvest at 23% complete against a 27% five-year average and soybeans at 25% against 33%. Corn was rated 54% good to excellent, down from 57%, and soybeans 57%, down from 58%. Winter wheat was 36% planted against a 46% average, with Kansas at 24% against 40%. (DTN, October 5) The October WASDE was released at 11 a.m. CDT on October 9, after this issue's data cutoff.
USDA projects a corn, soybean and sorghum harvest of 20.62 billion bushels, including 15.80 billion of corn, the second-largest on record, and a record 4.53 billion of soybeans. With September 1 stocks of 4.49 billion bushels, fall supplies total 25.11 billion against 25.49 billion of storage capacity. The resulting 381-million-bushel surplus is 874 million above last year but 1.28 billion below average, with 18 states in deficit and Iowa short 313 million bushels. (USDA AMS, October 8)
Barge grain movements for the week ended October 3 fell 16% on the week to 332,100 tons, up 9% from a year ago, and 730 grain barges were unloaded at New Orleans, down 23%. St. Louis spot barge freight was $28.85 a ton, down from $30.28 but 53% above a year ago. Grain inspected for export in the week ended October 1 was 2.83 million metric tons, down 15% from a year ago but 18% above the three-year average; year to date, inspections are up 11%. The Iowa-to-Gulf soybean basis widened 22 cents to −$1.51 a bushel.
In the secondary railcar market for the week ended October 1, October shuttle bids averaged $350 a car over tariff, down $350 on the week and $194 below a year ago. UP shuttles fell $575 to $125 over tariff and BNSF shuttles fell $125 to $575. November and December non-shuttle bids were $100 over tariff at both BNSF and UP, each down $50. (USDA AMS)
BNSF was the only major grain carrier down year over year in the week ended September 26, at 13,167 cars (−2.8%), against gains of 14.9% at UP, 14.0% at NS, 13.8% at CSX, 62.2% at CPKC and 64.8% at CN (U.S. operations). CN reported another quarterly grain record and CPKC set September and quarterly records. CPKC held 1,159 unfilled grain car orders and BNSF 954, together 95% of the 2,200 national total. UP had 82 and ran origin dwell of 10.9 hours, against 22.9 to 26.2 hours at every other carrier. (Progressive Railroading)
Harvest pace, not demand. Corn and soybeans are 4–8 points behind average, and the storage math (381 mbu surplus, 1.28 bbu below average, Iowa short 313 mbu) points to heavy fall rail and barge loadings once combines catch up. The secondary market is pricing the lull: October shuttles fell $350 to +$350, UP shuttles $575 to +$125. Capacity sits on the wrong network. UP has slack (10.9-hour origin dwell, 82 unfilled orders); CPKC and BNSF have the volume and 2,113 of the 2,200 unfilled orders.
Metals, Steel and Scrap
AISI reported U.S. raw steel production of 1,801,000 net tons at 78.3% capability utilization for the week ended October 3, down 2.4% from 1,845,000 tons at 80.5% the prior week and up 4.8% from 1,718,000 tons a year earlier. Year to date, 71,967,000 net tons at 79.0% utilization, up 5.3%. (Yieh; SteelOrbis)
October ferrous scrap opened higher, with a Detroit-area buyer paying $20 a gross ton more for shredded and plate and structural and $10 more for busheling, according to early reports. (SMU) U.S. steel imports reached a 15-month high of 2,346,901 short tons in August, up 3.4%, and license data put September at 2,492,332 tons, up 6.2%. (SMU) Commerce preliminarily raised dumping margins on Korean corrosion-resistant steel to 23.4% for KG Dongbu, 19.43% for Dongkuk Coated Metal/Aju and 20.58% for five other companies. (SMU)
Cleveland-Cliffs is indefinitely idling Stelco's Hamilton, Ontario finishing operations and concentrating production at Lake Erie Works in Nanticoke. Canada's industry minister, Mélanie Joly, asked Cliffs for an employment plan, reportedly within five days. (SMU) Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds signed MEGA program amendments on October 2 enabling a transferable incentive of up to 10% of qualifying investment over ten years, tied to Mesabi Metallics' planned $15 billion steel mill. (Office of the Governor of Iowa) Nucor announced a $105 million expansion of its Crawfordsville, Indiana utility towers and structures plant, and Worthington Steel said tight supply and extended lead times limited shipments while supporting prices. (SMU; SMU)
AAR's metallic ores and metals carloads rose 12.8% in the same week AISI raw steel output rose 4.8% year over year. In Part 1250 originations, metallic ores came mainly from CN at 8,779 cars and BNSF at 2,295, largely Lake Superior iron ore, while finished metals were led by NS at 4,124 and CSX at 2,290. Nucor's Crawfordsville expansion is in CSX and NS territory; the Hamilton idling and shift to Nanticoke fall on CN and CPKC in southern Ontario.
Volume, output and capex are aligned. Metals carloads +12.8% on raw steel +4.8% y/y and 79.0% YTD utilization is a demand print, not a comp effect. The open question is imports at a 15-month high alongside extended domestic lead times: gap-fill or share loss. The data can't separate them yet. Nucor's $105 million Crawfordsville expansion and the $15 billion Mesabi Metallics DRI-EAF project are underwriting gap-fill.
Chemicals and Liquid Bulk
Hurricane Isaias had shut in 62.89% of Gulf of Mexico oil production, about 1.28 million barrels a day, and 57.35% of gas by 11 a.m. CDT October 8, up from 25.08% and 16.37% a day earlier, with 121 of 371 manned platforms evacuated. Shell was shutting in Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox, and Chevron began shut-in procedures at four facilities. Isaias was a Category 2 storm with 100-mph winds on the evening of October 8, forecast to make landfall near the Florida–Alabama border late October 9 or early October 10.
About 2.7 million barrels a day of refining capacity, roughly 14% of the U.S. total, sits in or near the forecast path, including Marathon Garyville (617,000 b/d), Chevron Pascagoula (356,000), Shell Norco (231,000), Valero St. Charles (215,000), PBF Chalmette (190,000) and Valero Meraux (125,000). As of October 9, no refinery or petrochemical shutdown or force majeure had been announced. (Transport Topics; WMTV)
December Brent traded at $102.36 a barrel, up $2.16, and November WTI at $89.88, up $1.60, early on October 8. ICIS reported tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz at their highest weekly level since the conflict began in late February, though about 20 million barrels a day of crude was still transiting. (ICIS)
In plastics, ACC data put August U.S. resin production at 9.1 billion pounds, up 1.7% from July and down 0.7% from a year ago. Year to date, production is 71.3 billion pounds, up 4.3%, and sales and captive use 69.8 billion, up 2.2%. (PlasticsToday)
AAR chemicals carloads were essentially flat at 32,891 (−0.1%). In Part 1250 originated chemicals, UP led at 18,036 cars, nearly three times BNSF's 6,704, followed by CSX at 4,803, CN at 3,085, NS at 3,030 and CPKC at 2,010. On received cars the order shifts east, with CSX at 5,096 and NS at 4,294 ahead of UP at 3,239. In the merger docket, Shintech said UP carries all of the rail traffic at its Plaquemine and Addis, Louisiana and Freeport, Texas plants.
Fuels and Fuel Additives
For the week ended October 2, commercial crude inventories fell to 424.1 million barrels from 427.3 million. Gasoline stocks rose to 204.7 million barrels from 204.4 million, distillate stocks slipped to 105.1 million from 105.2 million, and four-week refinery utilization averaged 94.0%. The next report is due Thursday, October 15, because of the October 12 federal holiday. (EIA)
Ethanol production for the week ended October 2 rose 46,000 barrels a day to 1.053 million, down 1.7% from a year ago. Stocks fell 122,000 barrels to 23.743 million, up 4.5% year over year. (DTN, citing EIA) U.S. average diesel for the week ended October 5 was $6.199 a gallon, up $2.49 from a year ago. The October rail fuel surcharge is $0.59 a mile, 36 cents above the three-year average. (USDA AMS)
AAR petroleum and petroleum products carloads rose 12.2% to 11,804, all before the storm. In Part 1250 originated petroleum products, BNSF led at 5,753 cars, followed by UP at 3,897, CSX at 1,344 and CPKC at 1,299; NS received 1,912. On fuel cost guidance, UP cited diesel near $4.25 a gallon and a 120–150 basis point margin drag, NS about 250 basis points of operating-ratio pressure, and CSX 110 basis points.
At $0.59 a mile and heading past the $0.61 record, the surcharge works as a length-of-haul tax. It narrows the advantage of a single-line long haul against a shorter rail leg into a destination transload, and with diesel at $6.20 it still widens rail's edge over OTR truck. Carriers are eating the rest in OR: UP guiding 120–150 bp, NS about 250 bp, CSX 110 bp.
Lumber, Forest and Paper
Natural Resources Canada's published prices for the week of October 2 put the framing lumber composite at US$485 per thousand board feet, down $6. Eastern SPF 2x4 was C$570, down $5, and western SPF kiln-dried 2x4 #2 and better was unchanged at US$464. The panel composite rose $5 to US$538, and north central 7/16" OSB rose C$10 to C$460. (NRCan) CME lumber futures settled at US$526.50, down 14.5% from a year ago and 8.3% from a month earlier, after a one-year high of $650.06 in late July. Most Canadian producers pay a combined 35.16% anti-dumping and countervailing deposit, plus a 10% national security tariff in place since October 2025. (Wood Central) Bearlodge Forest Products will close its Hulett, Wyoming sawmill and pallet operations after October 31, after nearly 50 years, citing input costs, labor and pricing. (Cowboy State Daily)
Packaging Corporation of America will close its Middletown, Ohio converting plant, affecting about 91 employees, with most released December 1. The work moves to larger plants, including the $275 million, 556,000-square-foot Newark, Ohio facility that opened in August, about 130 miles away. (PaperAge) Mercer International halted the restart of its 360,000-ton Rosenthal kraft pulp mill in Germany after discoloration was reported near its discharge point; most of the mill's pulp moves by rail. (PaperAge) Norske Skog will invest up to about NOK 850 million to rebuild PM6 at Saugbrugs, Norway for up to 300,000 tons a year of kraftliner, shutting PM4 and PM5 on startup in the first half of 2028, and Sappi Europe announced a €89-a-ton board increase effective November 1. (PaperAge; PaperAge)
AAR forest products was reported up 7.5%, against 8,822 carloads (+7.7%) a week earlier. In Part 1250 originations, lumber and wood came mainly from UP at 1,361 cars and BNSF at 883, and pulp and paper from CSX at 1,705 and NS at 1,089. The PCA consolidation from Middletown to Newark stays within the CSX and NS footprint in Ohio.
Volume up, price down. Forest products carloads +7.5% against a $485 framing composite and CME futures −14.5% y/y. That reads as supply pushing into a soft market after two years of curtailments (about 50 North American mills shut or curtailed). Demand hasn't turned.
Cement, Aggregates and Industrial Minerals
Construction Partners' Lone Star Paving acquired J.H. Strain & Sons of Tye, Texas, adding two hot-mix asphalt plants serving Abilene and more than 125 employees. (Pit & Quarry) The Granite–Super joint venture won an approximately $324.8 million contract for Cleveland's Big Creek Tunnel, 22,300 feet of 20-foot tunnel and the last of seven tunnels in the $3 billion Project Clean Lake program, running from fall 2026 to winter 2030. (Rock Products) NSSGA urged passage of S. 5653, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, a permitting reform bill from Sens. Capito and Whitehouse with Lee and Heinrich. (Rock Products)
At TACA's San Antonio seminar, TCEQ reported that two central Texas quarries did not measurably add to fine particulate levels, while a sand mine showed higher readings. (Pit & Quarry) Pit & Quarry also reported data center construction competing for materials and equipment, delaying Tecweigh's St. Paul expansion. (Pit & Quarry) No North American cement or industrial minerals developments were reported this week.
Crushed stone, sand and gravel sit in AAR's nonmetallic minerals group, which was not broken out this week; it was 34,021 carloads (+3.7%) in Week 38. In Part 1250 originations, UP led at 7,246 cars, followed by CSX at 5,201, BNSF at 4,074 and NS at 3,435. The Cleveland tunnel project is in CSX and NS territory.
Frac Sand, Coal and Fertilizer
Frac sand and proppant. The Baker Hughes count for October 2 put the U.S. at 598 rigs (456 oil, 133 gas), down 1 on the week and up 49 from a year earlier. Canada rose 8 to 216. (American Oil & Gas Reporter) At an investor conference, Smart Sand CFO Lee Beckelman described more than 450 million tons of Northern White reserves, 10 million tons a year of capacity across Oakdale and Blair, Wisconsin and Ottawa, Illinois, unit trains of 100 to 150 cars, and logistics at about two-thirds of delivered cost. Smart Sand reports third-quarter results November 10. (The Cerbat Gem)
Coal, petcoke and coke. AAR coal carloads rose 2.9% to 58,163, reversing the prior week's 2.1% decline. Queensland's four coal terminals shipped 18.5 million metric tons in September, up 8.5% from a year ago, bringing January–September exports to 149.13 million tons. (SteelOrbis) In Russia, Raspadskaya suspended production after a mine fire. (The Coal Hub)
Fertilizer. CF Industries pushed the restart of its 1.3-million-ton-a-year Yazoo City, Mississippi nitrogen complex to the first half of 2027, citing equipment fabrication, and expects below-average North American inventories entering the 2027 season. (Fertilizer Daily) Wholesale prices for the week ended October 2 split sharply: urea $796.25 a short ton (+9.1%), UAN28 $533.34 (−11.1%), potash $571.35 (+6.8%), DAP $945.56 (−1.7%) and MAP $978.00 (−3.8%). A 30,000-ton Belarusian potash cargo was reported bound for New Orleans, the first in four years. (Fertilizer Daily) Four physically settled MIAX NOLA fertilizer futures, for urea, MAP, DAP and potash, begin trading October 19. (Fertilizer Daily)
In Part 1250 originated coal, BNSF led at 21,504 cars, followed by UP at 14,031, NS at 10,905 and CSX at 10,887; CPKC received 3,561. Coke originations were CSX 1,144 and CPKC 834. Fertilizer originations were UP 1,541, CSX 1,357 and BNSF 972. Yazoo City is served by CN, so its continued outage affects CN's U.S. traffic rather than an AAR-reporting carrier.
Market Moves
Terminals and Facilities
Wafra acquired Liberty Development Partners and made a strategic investment in Gulf Inland Logistics Park and CMC Railroad at Dayton, Texas, northeast of Houston. The park now covers about 3,900 acres of rail-served industrial land, up from about 1,150 acres in 2022, with access to U.S. 90 and SH 99. CMC Railroad interchanges with UP and BNSF, provides switching and storage for more than 1,000 railcars, and expects about 1,000 more storage spaces by year-end. Terms were not disclosed, and current management stays in place. (Railway Age, October 8)
BNSF's Barstow International Gateway awaits a court ruling on an environmental lawsuit brought by the Sierra Club, East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice, NRDC and the Center for Biological Diversity, with construction still targeted for the end of 2026. The 4,500-acre, $4 billion-plus project includes more than 200 miles of track and warehouses for transloading international containers into domestic ones, with opening targeted for 2028 or 2029. (RailPrime) UP's Kenny Rocker said rail holds 27% of the Los Angeles basin transportation market, and Larry Gross put intermodal up 6.6% in the quarter's second-to-last week, led by domestic. (Progressive Railroading)
Railroads and Short Lines
ASLRRA presented President's Awards for safety to 16 member railroads at its Fall Super Regional Meeting in St. Louis, based on 2025 incident rates. Recipients included Indiana Rail Road, Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis, Texas North Western, Shenandoah Valley, Central Railroad of Indiana, Dakota Northern and Port Terminal Railroad Association. (Progressive Railroading) CN reported another quarterly grain record, and CPKC set September and quarterly grain records. (Progressive Railroading)
Equipment, Labor and Rates
Rates. TD Cowen's third-quarter rail shipper survey found shippers expecting rail prices to rise 4.4% over the next 6 to 12 months, the largest expected increase since 2021 and above the 3.7% five-year average. The share of shippers moving volume to rail rose to 32% from 20%, while expected business growth slipped to 1.8%. Roundtable participants cited drayage and chassis availability as ongoing problems, and UP indicated its next bid cycle could shift into the second half of 2027 if truck conditions persist. (Railway Age)
Equipment. Parallel Systems closed a $100 million Series C to commercialize its third-generation Panther autonomous battery-electric rail vehicle. The Max-Theurer family formed JMT Industrie Holding as a joint holding company for Plasser & Theurer, Robel, Matisa and Seno International, with expected 2026 revenue of about €1.7 billion. (Progressive Railroading)
Labor. IBEW, representing more than 10,000 rail workers, declared opposition to the UP–NS merger after talks with UP on worker protections broke down; it joins BLET, BMWED, BRS, IAM, TCU/IAM and TWU. (Progressive Railroading)
Policy and Funding
Revenue adequacy, EP 552 (Sub-No. 30). The STB found four Class I railroads revenue adequate for 2025 against a 9.79% cost of capital: UP at 17.09% return on investment, CSX 11.40%, BNSF 10.91% and NS 10.29%. CN's Grand Trunk U.S. affiliates (6.09%) and Soo Line with Kansas City Southern (5.30%) fell short. (Railway Age)
UP–NS merger, STB Finance Docket No. FD 36873. On October 6 the Board accepted four late-filed descriptions of anticipated responsive applications. (STB) George Avery Grimes filed a 23-page statement arguing a combined UP/NS would influence more than 90% of its connected short lines and at least 60% of the short line industry. (Railway Age) Shintech, the largest U.S. PVC producer, filed a letter supporting the merger. (FreightWaves) ASLRRA is drafting comments and possible conditions for the November 18 deadline. (Railway Age) UP CEO Jim Vena put approval odds at 99.99%, while TD Cowen expects a decision no earlier than the second half of 2027. (FreightWaves) A consultant critique challenged the applicants' estimate of about 2.14 million truckloads diverted to rail each year, noting that no truck shippers testified to committing freight. (Railway Age)
Abandonments. The STB decided abandonment exemptions for CSX in Hamilton County, Ohio (AB 55, Sub-No. 823X) on October 7 and for The Alabama Great Southern Railroad in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana (AB 290, Sub-No. 423X) on October 6.
Funding. FRA designated $416 million in Florida from its $5.3 billion August investment: $356 million to Florida DOT for upgrades at 910 grade crossings and $57 million to the City of Cocoa for a Brightline station, access road and double track, with Florida adding $100 million. (Progressive Railroading) No federal rail grant window is currently open; FRA CRISI FY25–26 and the Railroad Crossing Elimination Program both closed in June. Virginia DRPT is taking input on its 2026 Statewide Rail Plan through early November. (Progressive Railroading)
Dates to Watch
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | EIA weekly petroleum report, delayed by the October 12 holiday | First inventory read after Hurricane Isaias |
| Oct 19, 2026 | MIAX NOLA fertilizer futures begin trading | Physically settled urea, MAP, DAP and potash at New Orleans |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bearlodge Forest Products closes, Hulett, Wyoming | A regional forest products origin exits |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sappi Europe board increase effective | Watch for North American follow-through |
| Early Nov 2026 | Virginia DRPT Statewide Rail Plan survey closes | Public input on state rail priorities |
| Nov 10, 2026 | Smart Sand third-quarter earnings | Northern White volumes and logistics costs |
| Nov 18, 2026 | STB FD 36873: comments and responsive applications due | Merger conditions and responsive filings |
| Nov 19–20, 2026 | RailTrends, New York | All seven Class I railroads and all four STB members |
| Dec 1, 2026 | PCA Middletown, Ohio separations effective | Converting work consolidates in Newark, Ohio |
| Year-end 2026 | CMC Railroad adds about 1,000 railcar storage spaces; Barstow court ruling expected | New Houston-area storage; a $4 billion intermodal and transload build |
| Feb 16, 2027 | STB FD 36873: responses due | Second round of the merger record |
| H1 2027 | CF Industries Yazoo City restart | 1.3 million tons a year of Mid-South nitrogen returns |
| May 28, 2027 | STB FD 36873: final briefs due | Closes the evidentiary record |
| H1 2028 | Norske Skog Saugbrugs PM6 startup | New kraftliner capacity; PM4 and PM5 close |
Sources
- AAR weekly rail traffic, week ending October 3, 2026, via American Journal of Transportation — ajot.com
- AAR weekly rail traffic, week ending October 3, 2026, via Railpace Newsmagazine — railpace.com
- "US freight rail traffic rises in week 39," Progressive Railroading, October 8, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- "AAR Week 39: Volume Still Climbing, Overall," Railway Age, October 7, 2026 — railwayage.com
- "Climbing intermodal rail volumes more than treble commodities traffic gains," FreightWaves, October 7, 2026 — freightwaves.com
- AAR weekly rail traffic, week ending September 26, 2026 — aar.org
- USDA AgTransport / STB Part 1250 weekly rail data, week ending October 3, 2026, via IndexBox — indexbox.io
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report, October 8, 2026 — ams.usda.gov
- DTN/Progressive Farmer, USDA Crop Progress, October 5, 2026 — dtnpf.com
- DTN/Progressive Farmer, EIA weekly ethanol data, October 7, 2026 — dtnpf.com
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report — eia.gov
- Railway Age, TD Cowen 3Q26 surveys and roundtable, October 8, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Railway Age, STB revenue adequacy for 2025, October 9, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Surface Transportation Board, UP–NS merger resources, FD 36873 — stb.gov
- Railway Age, "Sharp View on UP-NS," October 6, 2026 — railwayage.com
- FreightWaves, Shintech supports UP–NS merger, October 6, 2026 — freightwaves.com
- Progressive Railroading, IBEW opposes UP–NS merger, October 7, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- FreightWaves, UP CEO on merger approval, October 7, 2026 — freightwaves.com
- Railway Age, ASLRRA commentary on the merger, October 9, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Railway Age, "A Model Is Not a Shipment," October 7, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Railway Age, Wafra acquires Liberty Development Partners, October 8, 2026 — railwayage.com
- RailPrime, BNSF Barstow International Gateway, October 8, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, domestic intermodal in southern California, October 9, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, ASLRRA President's Awards, October 8, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, CN quarterly grain record, October 7, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, CPKC grain records, October 6, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, FRA Florida funding, October 7, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, Virginia state rail plan input, October 6, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, supplier news, October 8, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- American Oil & Gas Reporter, U.S. rig count — aogr.com
- SteelOrbis, U.S. and Canadian rig counts, October 5, 2026 — steelorbis.com
- The Cerbat Gem, Smart Sand conference presentation, October 2, 2026 — thecerbatgem.com
- Pit & Quarry, CPI Texas acquisition, October 7, 2026 — pitandquarry.com
- Pit & Quarry, TACA seminar, October 7, 2026 — pitandquarry.com
- Pit & Quarry, data centers and aggregates equipment, October 6, 2026 — pitandquarry.com
- Rock Products, NSSGA permitting reform, October 8, 2026 — rockproducts.com
- Rock Products, Granite–Super joint venture tunnel award, October 8, 2026 — rockproducts.com
- SteelOrbis, Queensland coal exports, October 6, 2026 — steelorbis.com
- The Coal Hub, coal production news, October 5, 2026 — thecoalhub.com
- Fertilizer Daily, Yazoo City restart, October 5, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Fertilizer Daily, wholesale fertilizer prices, October 5, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Fertilizer Daily, MIAX NOLA fertilizer futures, October 4, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Transport Topics, Hurricane Isaias, October 8, 2026 — ttnews.com
- WMTV, Gulf oil production shut-ins, October 8, 2026 — wmtv15news.com
- ICIS, oil prices and Mideast risk, October 8, 2026 — icis.com
- PlasticsToday, U.S. resin production in August, October 5, 2026 — plasticstoday.com
- SteelOrbis, U.S. raw steel production, October 5, 2026 — steelorbis.com
- Yieh, AISI raw steel production, October 6, 2026 — yieh.com
- Steel Market Update, October scrap prices, October 6, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, U.S. steel imports, October 8, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, Korean coated steel dumping margins, October 7, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, Canada and Stelco layoffs, October 6, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, Nucor Crawfordsville expansion, October 8, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, Worthington Steel supply, October 7, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Office of the Governor of Iowa, MEGA program amendments, October 2, 2026 — governor.iowa.gov
- Natural Resources Canada, current lumber, pulp and panel prices — natural-resources.canada.ca
- Wood Central, U.S. lumber prices, October 5–6, 2026 — woodcentral.com.au
- Cowboy State Daily, Bearlodge Forest Products closure, October 5, 2026 — cowboystatedaily.com
- PaperAge, PCA Middletown closure, October 5, 2026 — paperage.com
- PaperAge, Mercer Rosenthal mill, October 7, 2026 — paperage.com
- PaperAge, Norske Skog Saugbrugs PM6, October 8, 2026 — paperage.com
- PaperAge, Sappi Europe price increase, October 6, 2026 — paperage.com
About The Interchange Weekly
A weekly brief on North American freight rail markets, published every Friday by Rail-Industrial Partners, covering rail volumes by commodity and by carrier, terminal and facility development, and the commodity markets that move by rail.
Method
Every figure is attributed to a named public source and linked. Volume data comes from AAR's weekly release and from STB Part 1250 filings via the USDA AgTransport mirror. AAR and STB figures are never combined in one comparison. Prices available only by subscription are not quoted.
Corrections
We correct errors promptly and note the correction in the following issue. To report an error, or to request coverage of a commodity, contact us at rail-industrial.com.
About Rail-Industrial Partners
Rail-Industrial Partners is a specialized investment, operating and strategic advisory platform focused on the North American freight rail and rail-industrial sectors. The Interchange Weekly is a complimentary resource for shippers, railroads, investors and others who use freight rail transportation.
Disclaimer
The Interchange Weekly is an informational summary compiled from publicly available sources, published to bring a week's worth of freight rail reporting into one place. Every item is attributed to its original publisher and linked, and readers are encouraged to consult those sources directly for full context. Rail-Industrial Partners claims no ownership of the underlying reporting. All trademarks, company names, railroad names and publication names are the property of their respective owners, and reference to any company, railroad, agency or publication does not imply affiliation with or endorsement by Rail-Industrial Partners.
Statistical data is drawn from the Association of American Railroads' weekly public release and from Surface Transportation Board Part 1250 filings as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Figures are reproduced as published and have not been independently audited. Passages labeled "The Read" are market interpretation and opinion, not statements of fact.
While reasonable care is taken in preparing this report, Rail-Industrial Partners makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of any information contained in it, and accepts no liability for any loss or decision arising from reliance on it. Nothing here constitutes investment, legal, regulatory, financial, commercial or operational advice, or an offer or solicitation of any kind. Verify any figure against the linked primary source before acting on it.
The Interchange Weekly · Issue 06 · Week of October 5, 2026 · Published by Rail-Industrial Partners · rail-industrial.com