More Freight, Different Margins
Last week we asked whether Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern would confirm the shift from highway to rail on their earnings calls. They did. Union Pacific's third-quarter intermodal volume rose 11% and its total carloads 6%, and CSX's intermodal rose 7%. Norfolk Southern CEO Mark George said a tighter trucking market "highlighted rail's competitive advantages." Week 41 held the pattern: intermodal grew 12.6% against 3.5% for carloads and supplied 5,763 of the week's 5,879-unit gain.
In our view, fuel explains most of the difference in margins. A fuel surcharge adds about the same amount to revenue and to expense, so even when it fully covers the fuel bill it pushes the operating ratio toward 100. Surcharges supplied eight points of Norfolk Southern's 14% revenue growth; applied to last year's 64.6% operating ratio, our estimate of that arithmetic alone is about 67.2%, close to the 67.4% NS reported. By the same estimate, Union Pacific's surcharges added about nine points, enough to push its 59.2% to roughly 62.6%, yet it reported 59.1%. With volume up 6% and intermodal up 11%, UP covered the fuel drag; with volume up 3%, NS did not. CSX widened its operating margin 880 basis points to 39.1%, helped in part by a weak prior-year quarter. (UP; NS; CSX)
Estimates are Rail-Industrial Partners' calculations from the companies' published figures and assume added fuel cost roughly equals added surcharge revenue; the railroads do not report that split.
What to watch: CPKC on October 28 and CN on October 30, which will show whether the shift reaches cross-border and Canadian traffic, and whether carloads move off this week's flat reading when AAR publishes Week 42 on October 28.
This Week in Brief
No holiday distorts this week's year-over-year figures. AAR Week 41 of 2026 ran October 11–17 and is compared with October 12–18, 2025. Columbus Day fell inside both weeks (October 12, 2026 and October 13, 2025), so the effect cancels and the year-over-year and week-over-week figures can be taken as published.
- AAR Week 41, ended October 17, 2026: U.S. rail traffic totaled 540,135 carloads and intermodal units, up 8.5% year over year: 232,120 carloads (+3.5%) and 308,015 containers and trailers (+12.6%). Year to date, combined traffic is 21,062,681 units, up 3.7%. (AAR; Railway Age; Progressive Railroading)
- Intermodal carried the week. Carloads rose 116 from Week 40. Intermodal added 5,763 units, nearly all of the 5,879-unit combined gain. (AAR)
- Metallic ores and metals led again, up 2,946 cars (+14.5%) to 23,306. Nine of ten groups rose; nonmetallic minerals (−1,089 cars) was the only decline. (AAR)
- Third-quarter earnings: Union Pacific earned $2.08 billion on $7.2 billion of revenue at a 59.1% operating ratio. CSX widened its operating margin 880 basis points to 39.1%. Norfolk Southern reported record revenue of $3.5 billion, but its operating ratio rose to 67.4% from 64.6%. (UP; CSX; NS; Railway Age on UP and NS; Progressive Railroading)
- Mills ran harder. AISI put raw steel output at 1,870,000 net tons at 80.9% utilization, up 4.1% on the week and 8.6% on the year. Cleveland-Cliffs pushed back the Burns Harbor C furnace reline to April 2028. (AISI; SMU)
- FRA awarded $2.3 billion in CRISI grants across 105 projects in 45 states, including $204.8 million to rebuild the Coos Bay Rail Line for 286,000-pound double-stack cars. (Progressive Railroading)
- Pinsly agreed to buy the Kankakee, Beaverville & Southern, 159.7 route miles in Illinois and Indiana with five Class I and regional interchanges. It will be Pinsly's tenth short line. (Railway Age)
The Numbers
U.S. Headline
| Measure | Week 41 (Oct 17) | Week 40 (Oct 10) | WoW | WoW % | YoY as published | YTD, 41 weeks | YTD YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carloads | 232,120 | 232,004 | +116 | +0.05% | +3.5% | 9,374,717 | +2.7% |
| Intermodal units | 308,015 | 302,252 | +5,763 | +1.9% | +12.6% | 11,687,964 | +4.6% |
| Total traffic | 540,135 | 534,256 | +5,879 | +1.1% | +8.5% | 21,062,681 | +3.7% |
Week-over-week columns are calculated from the two published AAR weekly releases. Year-over-year and year-to-date percentages are as published, and this week's year-to-date totals equal last week's plus Week 41. AAR's U.S. figures exclude the U.S. operations of CPKC, CN and GMXT.
North America
| Region | Carloads | YoY | Intermodal | YoY | Combined | YTD combined | YTD YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 232,120 | +3.5% | 308,015 | +12.6% | 540,135 | 21,062,681 | +3.7% |
| Canada | 95,392 | +3.3% | 70,389 | −0.7% | 165,781 | 6,750,758 | +1.3% |
| Mexico | 11,522 | −1.6% | 14,277 | +43.6% | 25,799 | 1,015,254 | +4.8% |
| North America | 339,034 | +3.2% | 392,681 | +10.8% | 731,715 | 28,828,693 | +3.2% |
The three countries sum exactly to the published North American totals, and each country's year-to-date total equals last week's plus Week 41. Country combined figures are the sum of the published carload and intermodal counts. Mexico's 43.6% intermodal gain is on a small base and swings widely from week to week.
Commodity Groups, Ranked by Year-over-Year Change
| Commodity group | Week 41 cars | Week 40 cars | Cars vs PY | YoY | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallic ores and metals | 23,306 | 22,048 | +2,946 | +14.5% | 10.0% |
| Grain | 22,486 | 23,584 | +1,470 | +7.0% | 9.7% |
| Farm products excluding grain, and food | 18,776 | 16,863 | +1,103 | +6.2% | 8.1% |
| Coal | 58,242 | 57,526 | +638 | +1.1% | 25.1% |
| Nonmetallic minerals | 32,428 | 32,537 | −1,089 | −3.2% | 14.0% |
| Chemicals, forest products, motor vehicles and parts, petroleum, and other (combined) | 76,882 | 79,446 | — | Up | 33.1% |
| Total carloads | 232,120 | 232,004 | — | +3.5% | 100.0% |
AAR's public summary named four groups this week, and five are shown individually here. Coal is from EIA's weekly coal report, which carries AAR's coal carload count (its prior-week figure, 57,526, matches AAR's Week 40 coal exactly). The remaining five groups are shown as one line: AAR said nine of ten groups rose, so all five gained, by amounts it did not publish. FreightWaves put motor vehicles and parts up 5.6%. (AAR; IndexBox, citing EIA; FreightWaves)
By Railroad
| Carrier | BNSF | UP | NS | CSX | CN (U.S.) | CPKC (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Part 1250 cars, including containers and trailers | 209,992 | 179,579 | 144,241 | 133,689 | 45,945 | 30,489 |
| Prior week (October 10) | 205,910 | 180,060 | 143,741 | 135,932 | 43,978 | 30,668 |
| Change | +4,082 | −481 | +500 | −2,243 | +1,967 | −179 |
Basis note. Part 1250 "carloads" include containers and trailers, so they cannot be compared with a carrier's own carload count, and the carriers are not summed because interchange traffic would be counted twice. CN and CPKC report only U.S. operations to the STB. Source: USDA AgTransport, STB Part 1250 data, via IndexBox; prior week from Issue 07.
Freight Rail Commodities by Railroad
| Commodity (originated) | BNSF | UP | NS | CSX | CN (U.S.) | CPKC (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Containers | 109,362 | 72,144 | 65,109 | 52,241 | 3,757 | 3,496 |
| Coal | 23,426 | 12,838 | 10,698 | 10,566 | 1,142 | n/p |
| Chemicals | 6,763 | 17,738 | 2,794 | 4,626 | 2,750 | 1,996 |
| Grain | 11,584 | 6,440 | 2,534 | 1,928 | 1,925 | 4,661 |
| Crushed stone, sand and gravel | 3,588 | 8,665 | 3,185 | 4,802 | 2,343 | 2,535 |
| Motor vehicles | 2,747 | 2,381 | 6,221 | 4,639 | 1,785 | n/p |
| Grain mill products | 4,092 | 3,974 | 1,852 | 1,218 | 1,218 | n/p |
| Petroleum products | 5,675 | 3,829 | n/p | 1,349 | n/p | 1,214 |
| Trailers | 4,223 | 1,706 | 1,892 | 1,338 | n/p | n/p |
| Stone, clay and glass | 2,317 | 2,740 | 1,561 | 1,888 | n/p | n/p |
| Metallic ores | 2,551 | n/p | n/p | 881 | 9,533 | n/p |
| Food and kindred products | 2,784 | 2,689 | n/p | n/p | n/p | n/p |
Originated cars only; do not sum. "n/p" means not published, not zero. CN and CPKC figures are U.S. operations only.
Carrier-Published Carloads by Commodity
| Commodity | Union Pacific | BNSF | Two-road total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 12,979 | 23,446 | 36,425 |
| Chemicals | 20,864 | 8,495 | 29,359 |
| Grain | 8,130 | 11,617 | 19,747 |
| Petroleum products | 5,821 | 7,659 | 13,480 |
| Motor vehicles and equipment | 7,656 | 5,743 | 13,399 |
| Crushed stone, gravel and sand | 8,964 | 4,323 | 13,287 |
| Grain mill products | 4,375 | 5,087 | 9,462 |
| Food and kindred products | 4,656 | 3,288 | 7,944 |
| Stone, clay and glass products | 3,359 | 2,763 | 6,122 |
| Metals and products | 2,989 | 1,850 | 4,839 |
| Lumber and wood products | 1,864 | 1,355 | 3,219 |
| Metallic ores | 189 | 2,572 | 2,761 |
| Pulp, paper and allied products | 1,605 | 1,095 | 2,700 |
| Iron and steel scrap | 1,176 | 1,306 | 2,482 |
| Waste and nonferrous scrap | 833 | 617 | 1,450 |
| Nonmetallic minerals | 976 | 424 | 1,400 |
| Coke | 725 | 423 | 1,148 |
| Farm products, except grain | 344 | 571 | 915 |
| Primary forest products | 284 | 34 | 318 |
| All other | 3,086 | 1,921 | 5,007 |
| Total carloads | 90,875 | 84,589 | 175,464 |
| Intermodal units | 86,124 | 123,857 | 209,981 |
Each carrier's commodity lines sum exactly to its published carload total. These are the carriers' own counts, on the same basis as AAR's release, so they can be read against the AAR tables above but not against Part 1250. Together UP and BNSF moved 75.6% of U.S. carloads and 68.2% of U.S. intermodal units this week. Line names are shown in UP's wording where the two reports differ. Sources: Union Pacific; BNSF.
Service Metrics
| Carrier | Terminal dwell (hrs) Oct 16 | Prior week | Train speed (mph) wk ended Oct 21 | Prior week | Intermodal speed (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk Southern | 25.3 | 24.8 | 19.9 | 20.2 | 24.8 |
| BNSF | 22.5 | 22.9 | 25.0 | 25.3 | 29.9 |
| CSX | 20.76 | 20.03 | 24.13 | 24.45 | 30.02 |
| Union Pacific | 19.9 | 19.9 | 24.5 | 24.6 | 30.6 |
| CPKC | 19.80 | 21.41 | 22.4 | 22.9 | 29.2 |
| CN (U.S.) | 16.31 | n/p | 23.25 | 23.75 | 26.32 |
Dwell and train speed cover different weeks; read each against its own date. Train speed fell at all six carriers. The longest terminal dwells in the data were NS Roanoke (48.5 hours), NS Decatur (42.9), CPKC Shreveport (39.74), NS Bellevue (38.8), NS Conway (34.9), CSX Selkirk (33.43) and BNSF Barstow (32.8). Union Pacific's own metrics for the week ending October 16 match: 19.9 hours dwell, 24.5 mph and car velocity of 231 miles a day. Sources: IndexBox, USDA AgTransport; IndexBox, STB service metrics; Union Pacific.
Carloads flat. +116 cars w/w on a 232,000 base is noise; the 8.5% headline is intermodal (+12.6%, second straight double-digit week). Carloads sit 1.5% above the 41-week average of 228,652, about where they have been for a month. The y/y gain is real and the calendar is clean.
The West carries the volume. UP and BNSF moved three of every four U.S. carloads this week. Metals +14.5% and grain +7.0% lead; nonmetallic minerals (frac and industrial sand) is the only decline, which fits a rig count stuck at 603.
Service is softening as volume rises. Train speed fell at all six Class Is. NS has the longest dwell (25.3 hours), the slowest trains (19.9 mph) and four of the seven worst terminals. FreightWaves says the container surge is now straining drayage, with J.B. Hunt short of drivers (FreightWaves). Drivers, chassis and gates are shared with bulk terminals in the same markets.
Commodity Watch
Grain and Agriculture
USDA's Crop Progress report for the week ended October 18 put the corn harvest at 44% complete, up 11 points on the week and eight behind the 52% five-year average. Soybeans gained 18 points to 64% against a 65% average, so the soybean harvest has nearly caught up. Corn was rated 56% good to excellent, unchanged. Winter wheat was 63% planted against a 69% average. (DTN, October 19)
Gulf-to-Japan ocean grain freight was $76.25 a metric ton against $37.50 from the Pacific Northwest. In the third quarter the Gulf rate averaged $72.76, up 34% from a year ago, and PNW-to-Asia $36.67, up 26%. Gulf vessel loadings were 7% below last year. (RFD-TV, citing USDA) Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition said diesel's rise from about $3.50 to about $6.30 a gallon is enough to erase a distant buyer's premium: a 15-cent premium at a processor 50 miles away disappears against an elevator 10 miles out once the truck haul and empty return are counted. (RFD-TV)
Export Exchange 2026 drew about 500 buyers from more than 50 countries to Seattle on October 15–17. (RFD-TV) There, UAE-based BioPower Energy signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council for at least 1 million metric tons of U.S. corn a year, about 39 million bushels, for a planned biorefinery; no start date was given. (RFD-TV) USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service estimates three Brazilian rail projects could cut Brazil's grain transport costs by about 40%. (RFD-TV)
AAR grain carloads rose 1,470 to 22,486 (+7.0%). In their own reports, BNSF out-originated UP in grain, 11,617 cars to 8,130, and in grain mill products, 5,087 to 4,375. Part 1250 originated grain was BNSF 11,584, UP 6,440, CPKC 4,661, NS 2,534, CSX 1,928 and CN 1,925; CPKC's figure covers U.S. operations only.
Corn at 44% vs. a 52% average leaves the heaviest part of the corn harvest ahead. The Gulf–PNW ocean spread is $38.75/mt, which favors PNW routing, and PNW is shuttle-train origination; the Gulf is mostly barge. With BNSF and CPKC holding most unfilled grain car orders in Issue 07's data, shuttle demand looks set to hold into Q4. Steenhoek's point cuts the other way locally: $6 diesel shortens the truck draw to every rail-served elevator.
Metals, Steel and Scrap
AISI reported U.S. raw steel production of 1,870,000 net tons at 80.9% capability utilization for the week ended October 17, up 4.1% from 1,796,000 tons at 77.8% the prior week and up 8.6% from 1,722,000 tons a year earlier. Year to date, 75,632,000 tons at 79.1%, up 5.3%. (AISI; SteelOrbis)
Cleveland-Cliffs returned to profit with third-quarter net income of $165 million on revenue of $5.6 billion, up 18.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $612 million against its $575 million guidance. Shipments rose 3.0% to 4.15 million net tons at an average $1,177 a ton, against $1,032 a year ago. Cliffs will idle the galvanizing lines at Stelco indefinitely, saying the Canadian galvanized market is oversupplied, and says it will hold Stelco's total tonnage. (SteelOrbis) It also moved the reline of Burns Harbor's C blast furnace, about 2.2 million tons a year, from mid-2027 to April 2028 to keep it running while prices hold. (SMU)
Steel Dynamics earned $5.26 a share on net sales of $6.5 billion with record shipments of 3.78 million tons, a little below its $5.34–$5.38 guidance. Metals recycling operating income fell $15 million from the second quarter to $33 million on lower ferrous scrap prices and narrower spreads, and fabrication backlog is 50% above a year ago, running into the second quarter of 2027. (Steel Dynamics) Nucor raised its hot-rolled spot price $15 to $1,255 a short ton, with lead times of three to five weeks. (SMU) October scrap settled up $20–30 a gross ton and participants expect November to rise again. (SMU) Nucor will spend $60 million to expand its towers and structures plant at Trinity, Alabama, next to its Decatur mill. (SMU)
BNSF originated 2,572 cars of metallic ores to UP's 189, reflecting its Minnesota iron range access, while UP led in metals and products, 2,989 to 1,850. Iron and steel scrap was BNSF 1,306 and UP 1,176. In Part 1250 originations, metallic ores came mainly from CN at 9,533 cars (U.S. operations only), with BNSF at 2,551 and CSX at 881.
Mills, rail and price agree: 80.9% utilization, metals the largest carload gainer (+14.5%), HRC +$15 to $1,255, scrap +$20–30 with November expected higher. The Burns Harbor deferral keeps a 2.2 Mt furnace running about three quarters longer than planned, which means continued inbound ore, coke and coal into northwest Indiana. SDI's miss and its narrower recycling margin show not every link is capturing the price. Nucor reports October 26.
Chemicals and Liquid Bulk
Dow's third-quarter net sales rose 13% to $11.27 billion, and operating EBIT was $887 million against $180 million a year earlier. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, the chlor-alkali, glycols and polyurethanes segment, posted sales of $3.06 billion, up 8%, on price up 16% and volume down 7%. Packaging & Specialty Plastics sales rose 18% to $5.78 billion on price up 17% and volume up 1%. Performance Materials & Coatings rose 8%, on price up 5% and volume up 3%. (Dow) LyondellBasell reports October 30.
Chemicals is Union Pacific's largest carload line at 20,864 cars, more than twice BNSF's 8,495. Part 1250 originated chemicals were UP 17,738, BNSF 6,763, CSX 4,626, NS 2,794, CN 2,750 and CPKC 1,996. Received chemicals on the same basis were NS 4,979, CSX 4,559, CN 3,426, BNSF 1,732 and CPKC 1,179, so the eastern roads are net receivers. Originated and received are never added.
Dow's chlor-alkali and glycols business grew revenue on price (+16%) while volume fell 7%; plastics did the same (price +17%, volume +1%). Chemicals carloads follow tons, not dollars. Watch whether LyondellBasell shows the same split on October 30.
Fuels and Fuel Additives
For the week ended October 16, commercial crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million, about 3% below the five-year average. Gasoline stocks were 205.3 million barrels, 5% below average, and distillate stocks 104.3 million, 9% below, narrower than the 12% shortfall a week earlier. Refinery utilization was 93.4% and crude runs 16.6 million barrels a day. (Rigzone; Oil & Gas 360; BOE Report/Reuters)
Ethanol production rose 29,000 barrels a day to 1.094 million, down 1.6% from a year ago. Stocks rose 616,000 barrels to 24.558 million, up 12% year over year, with Gulf Coast stocks of 5.209 million up 32.3% and Midwest stocks of 9.652 million up 9.5%. Blender input fell to 891,000 barrels a day, down 2.2%. (DTN, citing EIA)
The Department of Energy set up a process for biofuel producers to submit production, feedstock and emissions data so DOE can calculate an emissions value, which a producer can use to seek a provisional rate from Treasury under the 45Z clean fuel production credit. (RFD-TV) Under an October 5 executive order, red-dyed diesel may be used on highways and the federal 24-cent diesel excise tax is deferred to year-end; the IRS confirmed no federal penalty for on-highway dyed diesel from October 1 through December 31. (IRU)
BNSF moved more petroleum products than UP in their own reports, 7,659 cars to 5,821. Part 1250 originated petroleum products were BNSF 5,675, UP 3,829, CSX 1,349 and CPKC 1,214. Tank cars online fell at UP (down 1,105 to 82,541) and BNSF (down 635 to about 62,190), and rose at NS (up 1,378 to 40,307) and CSX (up 294 to 42,688). (IndexBox)
Gulf Coast ethanol stocks +32.3% y/y with blender input −2.2% is product building faster than it is used. PADD 2 and 3 are BNSF and UP origin territory, so the build is arriving by rail even as demand eases. It usually clears through exports or slower loadings; the data doesn't yet say which. Distillate's gap to the five-year average narrowed to 9% from 12%.
Lumber, Forest and Paper
Madison's said freight, not price, drove the mid-October lumber market. Trucks and railcars were pulled from lumber sellers for seasonal freight, and Eastern SPF shippers saw loads dropped in favor of seasonal goods, which lengthened delivery times and raised costs at a time of very high fuel prices. Heavy rain in Southern Yellow Pine regions slowed sawmills, and some U.S. South mills were reported selling at or below breakeven. (Madison's)
In Commerce's seventh administrative review, the antidumping rate for most Canadian softwood producers fell to 10.64% from 20.53% and the countervailing rate to 14.11% from 14.63%, for the 24.75% combined rate reported in Issue 07; with the 10% Section 232 tariff, the total is 34.75%. Canfor's antidumping rate fell to 17% from 35.47%, Resolute's is 13.13% and West Fraser's 4.71%. CBP will be told to assess the new duties no earlier than 41 days after publication, and the eighth review is under way. (ScrapMonster)
September housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000, down 5.2% from August and 7.4% from a year ago. Single-family starts were 859,000, up 2.6% from a year ago, and permits 1,400,000. Completions fell 14.0% from a year ago to 1,192,000, the only change in the release that was statistically significant. (Census/HUD)
Packaging Corporation of America reported third-quarter sales of $2.60 billion and net income of $262.3 million, or $2.93 a share, against $2.51 a year ago. Containerboard production was 1,489,000 tons, and corrugated shipments rose 10.6% per day. PCA guided to $2.81 a share in the fourth quarter, with maintenance outages at three mills and higher costs for freight, fiber, chemicals and energy. (PCA) Fastmarkets RISI showed North American containerboard prices flat in October after September's increases of $70 a ton for linerboard and $100 for medium. Truist expects another $50 a ton in April 2027. (Packaging Dive)
UP led BNSF in lumber and wood products, 1,864 cars to 1,355, and in pulp, paper and allied products, 1,605 to 1,095. The duty changes bear most directly on cross-border lumber on CN and CPKC. PCA's three fourth-quarter mill outages will reduce inbound fiber and outbound board at mills it did not name.
Two forces pull against each other. Lower duties (24.75% for most, 4.71% AD for West Fraser) cut the landed cost of Canadian lumber and argue for more cross-border volume. Completions −14% y/y argue demand is softening. Near term, the constraint is equipment: when trucks and cars go to seasonal freight, lumber moves on what's left.
Cement, Aggregates and Industrial Minerals
Holcim raised full-year guidance to 10–12% organic growth in recurring EBIT after a third quarter in which recurring EBIT rose 16.8% to CHF 976 million on sales of CHF 4.66 billion; it gave no North American volume figures. (International Cement Review) Vulcan Materials reports October 29 and Martin Marietta November 4. (Martin Marietta) Compass Minerals reports fiscal 2026 results November 23, its first full-year read on salt heading into the 2026–27 deicing season. (Compass Minerals)
Stone, clay and glass products, which carries most cement, ran UP 3,359 and BNSF 2,763. In Part 1250 originations of crushed stone, sand and gravel, UP led at 8,665 cars, followed by CSX at 4,802, BNSF at 3,588, NS at 3,185, CPKC at 2,535 and CN at 2,343. CSX ahead of BNSF points to aggregates rather than frac sand.
Frac Sand, Coal and Fertilizer
Frac sand and proppant. The Baker Hughes count held at 603 U.S. rigs for the week ended October 16, 55 more than a year ago. The Uinta (+4) and Gulf of Mexico (+1) offset the Permian (−2), Haynesville (−2) and Niobrara (−1). (RBN Energy) AAR nonmetallic minerals, which carries frac and industrial sand, fell 3.2% to 32,428 cars, the only group down.
Coal, petcoke and coke. U.S. coal production for the week ended October 17 was 10.138 million short tons, up 1.3% on the week and 0.9% from a year ago; year to date, 412.9 million tons, down 1.9%. Wyoming produced 4.102 million tons. Coal carloads were 58,242, up from 57,526 a week earlier and 57,604 a year ago, and are down 1.8% year to date. (IndexBox, citing EIA) In seaborne markets, European thermal coal topped $149 a ton, a three-year high, while Australian hard coking coal fell below $269 as Chinese buyers turned to domestic and Mongolian supply. (The Coal Hub)
Fertilizer. MIAX's physically settled NOLA futures for urea, MAP, DAP and potash began trading October 19, in 25-short-ton lots. (Fertilizer Daily) An S&P Global report found that about 29% of global urea trade normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly half of seaborne sulfur and about 21% of merchant ammonia. (Fertilizer Daily) A UN official warned on October 14 that without a shipping corridor deal "we will miss the planting season." (Fertilizer Daily) StoneX expects nitrogen to stay firm on Hormuz risk, phosphates to see little relief because supply is the constraint, and potash to be the most stable. (Fertilizer Daily)
BNSF moved 23,446 coal cars to UP's 12,979 in their own reports. Part 1250 originated coal was BNSF 23,426, UP 12,838, NS 10,698, CSX 10,566 and CN 1,142. CSX tested drones over the empty-car yard at its Curtis Bay export coal terminal in Baltimore to spot coal left in cars after unloading, covering the yard in about 30 minutes. (Progressive Railroading) Fertilizer moves inside chemicals; the NOLA delivery point for the new futures is reached by all six Class Is.
Coal's week is up and its year is down: carloads −1.8% YTD track production's −1.9% almost exactly. Nitrogen is where the risk sits. With close to a third of global urea trade exposed to Hormuz and spring application ahead, imported nitrogen into the Gulf and the rail moves inland from NOLA are the ones to watch; the new futures will put a public price on it.
Market Moves
Terminals and Facilities
R.J. Corman named Kyle Khadivi to a new role as vice president of transload. He previously led Transflo Terminal Services, CSX's transload subsidiary, and has managed 46 North American terminals. President and COO Matt Igoe said the hire comes "as we strengthen our transload capabilities." (Railway Age) The $837 million PhilaPort expansion reported in Issue 07 is funded by $371.5 million in state capital, $266 million in federal grants and $200 million in private money, and includes a new 2,000-foot deepwater berth at Southport and $109.4 million for the 152-acre Mustin Yard. (Railway News)
Canada committed up to C$254 million to the Saint John trade corridor, including continuous welded rail on 103 km of New Brunswick Southern Railway track and higher mainline speeds between Port Saint John and its Class I connections, plus work at the Bayshore Rail Terminal, the port's only rail access. The target is 850,000 to 1 million TEU a year. (Railway Age) Columbia Terminal Railroad received a $16.2 million FRA grant for upgrades to its roughly 21-mile line in Columbia, Missouri, which will also fund self-driving freight railcars from Intramotev. (KBIA)
Railroads and Short Lines
Pinsly Railroad agreed to acquire the Kankakee, Beaverville & Southern from the Stroo family. The KBSR covers about 159.7 route miles, moves more than 10,000 carloads a year, mostly agricultural, and interchanges with NS at Lafayette, CN at Kankakee, CSX at Newell, UP at St. Anne and the Toledo, Peoria & Western at Sheldon and Webster. Macquarie Infrastructure Partners V will also gain control. The price was not disclosed. (Railway Age; Progressive Railroading)
ASLRRA won a $5.6 million CRISI grant to expand its Short Line Training Center, a $7.5 million project with the match. (Progressive Railroading) Reading & Northern is placing about 10 signaled miles in service between Reading and Pittston, Pennsylvania, part of a self-funded effort to signal its full 114-mile main line. (Progressive Railroading)
Equipment, Labor and Rates
Equipment. PHMSA denied Trinity Industries' application to restencil DOT 105J600W tank cars as 105H600W for toxic-inhalation-hazard service; comments are due November 18. (Federal Register) FreightCar America bought Trinity Equipment Co., a Michigan railcar components supplier, its third aftermarket deal in about a year. (Progressive Railroading) Wabtec's third-quarter sales rose 8.1% to $3.12 billion and adjusted EPS 22% to $2.83; it raised full-year guidance to $10.85–$11.05 and cited lower locomotive deliveries and lower North American railcar builds. (Progressive Railroading)
Rates. FreightWaves reported that railroads generally target rate increases one to two points above rail inflation and that fuel surcharges trail sustained fuel spikes by one to two quarters; Stephens said there is "nothing to suggest" pricing above cost inflation will change. (FreightWaves) The STB's third-quarter complaint report lists 12 formal proceedings and 37 informal complaints, 22 of them on service; Union Pacific was named in nine. (STB)
Policy and Funding
CRISI. FRA awarded $2.3 billion to 105 projects in 45 states, chosen from a record 368 applications, with more than $1.9 billion in non-federal match. The largest awards were about $249 million to the Alaska Railroad for a 32-mile line from Port MacKenzie to its main line, $218.2 million for Wisconsin's Hiawatha service, $204.8 million to the Port of Coos Bay and $130 million for Springfield, Massachusetts rail work. (Progressive Railroading; Railway Age)
Virginia. The Commonwealth Transportation Board raised the Rail Industrial Access award ceiling to $1 million from $750,000. The DRPT program funds new spurs and rehabilitation connecting businesses to the state's freight network, and applications are taken on a rolling basis. (Progressive Railroading; Railway Age)
UP–NS merger, STB Finance Docket No. FD 36873. The Board issued no decision during the week; comments, protests, requests for conditions and responsive applications are due November 18. (STB; Federal Register) Railway Age ran a commentary by former STB chief economist William Brennan arguing that a single-line transcontinental system would be procompetitive; Railway Age disclosed that Norfolk Southern has retained him for the application. (Railway Age) In its earnings release, Union Pacific said it looks forward to the next steps of the review. (UP)
Dates to Watch
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | Nucor Q3 and Greenbrier fiscal Q4 results | Steel pricing; railcar orders and backlog |
| Oct 28, 2026 | AAR Week 42; CPKC Q3 results | Whether carloads move off a flat week; cross-border volume |
| Oct 29, 2026 | GATX, Trinity and Vulcan Materials Q3; Wilkes-Barre Terminal Railway may close | Lease rates and fleet utilization; aggregates demand; a new Class III carrier |
| Oct 30, 2026 | CN and LyondellBasell Q3 results | Record grain quarter; resin volume against Dow's price-led quarter |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bearlodge Forest Products closes, Hulett, Wyoming | A Black Hills sawmill closes after nearly 50 years |
| Nov 2–3, 2026 | Atlas Energy Solutions Q3 | The largest in-basin Permian sand producer |
| Nov 3–4, 2026 | Mosaic and Martin Marietta Q3 | Phosphate and potash; aggregates |
| Nov 13, 2026 | STB FD 36873: responsive environmental information due | Groundwork for responsive applications |
| Nov 18, 2026 | STB FD 36873: comments and responsive applications due; PHMSA special permit comments due | The last practical point to shape merger conditions |
| Nov 23–24, 2026 | Compass Minerals fiscal 2026 results | Salt into the 2026–27 deicing season |
| Dec 3, 2026 | STB FD 36873: preliminary DOJ and USDOT comments due | First federal agency views on the merger |
| Dec 8, 2026 | Mosaic South Fort Meade idle begins | Central Florida phosphate output |
| Dec 31, 2026 | On-highway dyed diesel relief and excise deferral end | Truck fuel costs and rail-served fuel distribution |
| Feb 16, 2027 | STB FD 36873: responses due | Second round of the merger record |
| May 28, 2027 | STB FD 36873: final briefs due | Final round of briefs |
Conferences and Meetings
| Date | Event | Location | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11–13, 2026 | NARS Annual Meeting | Washington, D.C. | Shippers and Class I executives, in Washington for the first time, as the merger record builds |
| Nov 19–20, 2026 | RailTrends | New York | Class I and STB leadership on one stage |
| Jan 6–9, 2027 | NRC Conference and REMSA Exhibition | Phoenix | Track construction and maintenance outlook for 2027 |
| Jan 12–14, 2027 | MARS Winter Meeting | Schaumburg, Ill. | The largest regional shipper meeting; carriers' first outlooks for the year |
| Feb 2–4, 2027 | MVTTC Annual Conference | New Orleans | Rail, barge and intermodal on the Mississippi Valley corridor |
| Feb 28–Mar 3, 2027 | Rail Equipment Finance Conference | La Quinta, Calif. | Railcar lease rates, fleet supply and equipment financing |
| Feb 28–Mar 3, 2027 | TPM27 | Long Beach, Calif. | Trans-Pacific contract season; the import volumes behind intermodal |
| Mar 9, 2027 | Next-Gen Freight Rail | Chicago | Executive conference on freight rail leadership and regulation |
| Mar 9–10, 2027 | SWARS Spring Meeting | Galveston, Texas | Southwest shippers: chemicals, plastics and Gulf Coast service |
| Mar 14–16, 2027 | ASLRRA Annual Conference and Exhibition | New Orleans | The short line industry's main event |
| Mar 24–25, 2027 | SEARS Spring Meeting | Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. | Southeast shippers and the eastern carriers |
| Apr 5–7, 2027 | PNWARS Spring Meeting | Portland, Ore. | Pacific Northwest shippers: grain, forest products and ports |
| May 12–14, 2027 | NEARS Spring Meeting | Burlington, Vt. | Northeast shippers and cross-border traffic |
| May 19, 2027 | Railroad Day on Capitol Hill | Washington, D.C. | Industry meetings with Congress |
| May 25–27, 2027 | Railway Interchange | Indianapolis | North America's largest rail supply exhibition |
Dates as posted by the organizers. Sources: NARS regional meeting calendar; AJOT; ASLRRA; RailMarket; S&P Global.
Sources
- Union Pacific, third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 22, 2026 — sec.gov
- Norfolk Southern, third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 22, 2026 — sec.gov
- CSX, third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K, October 21, 2026 — sec.gov
- AAR weekly rail traffic, week ending October 17, 2026, via American Journal of Transportation — ajot.com
- Railway Age, "AAR: U.S. Rail Traffic Rises 8.5% in Week Ending Oct. 17," October 21, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Progressive Railroading, "U.S. freight rail traffic climbs in Week 41," October 22, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Railway Age, "UP Reports 16% Increase in 3Q26 Earnings," October 22, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Railway Age, "NS Posts 14% Revenue Growth as Third-Quarter EPS Rises 7%," October 22, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Progressive Railroading, "CSX reports strong Q3 earnings, expanded operating margin," October 22, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- American Iron and Steel Institute, weekly raw steel production, week ending October 17, 2026 — steel.org
- Steel Market Update, "Cleveland-Cliffs postpones Burns Harbor furnace reline to 2028," October 19, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Progressive Railroading, "FRA awards $2.3B in CRISI grant funding," October 20, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Railway Age, "Pinsly to Acquire Kankakee, Beaverville & Southern Railroad," October 22, 2026 — railwayage.com
- IndexBox, "US coal output edges higher in week 42 as year-to-date total trails 2025," October 22, 2026 — indexbox.io
- FreightWaves, "Rail traffic surge: why intermodal volume is climbing," October 21, 2026 — freightwaves.com
- IndexBox, USDA AgTransport / STB Part 1250 weekly rail data, report date October 17, 2026 — indexbox.io
- Union Pacific, key performance metrics and weekly carload report, week ending October 17, 2026 — investor.unionpacific.com
- BNSF Railway, weekly carload report, Week 41, 2026 — bnsf.com
- IndexBox, USDA AgTransport terminal dwell, week 41, October 21, 2026 — indexbox.io
- IndexBox, "Class I Rail Network Velocity Softens in Latest Weekly Data," October 21, 2026 — indexbox.io
- DTN/Progressive Farmer, "USDA Crop Progress: Corn 44% Harvested," October 19, 2026 — dtnpf.com
- RFD-TV, "Rising ocean freight raises costs for U.S. grain," October 22, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- RFD-TV, "High diesel costs could change where farmers deliver grain," October 22, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- RFD-TV, "Global buyers gather to expand U.S. grain exports," October 20, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- RFD-TV, "UAE biorefinery plans major new U.S. corn purchases," October 22, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- RFD-TV, "Brazil rail expansion targets lower grain shipping costs," October 21, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- SteelOrbis, U.S. raw steel production, October 19, 2026 — steelorbis.com
- SteelOrbis, "Cleveland-Cliffs posts positive net income in Q3 2026," October 19, 2026 — steelorbis.com
- Steel Dynamics, "Steel Dynamics Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results," October 19, 2026 — placera.se
- Steel Market Update, "Nucor ups spot HR coil to $1,255/ton," October 19, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, "Scrap market players predict higher prices in November," October 21, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Steel Market Update, "Nucor plans $60M expansion of Alabama towers, structures facility," October 21, 2026 — steelmarketupdate.com
- Dow Inc., third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 22, 2026 — sec.gov
- Rigzone, "USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop 3MM Barrels WoW," October 22, 2026 — rigzone.com
- Oil & Gas 360, EIA weekly crude inventories, October 21, 2026 — oilandgas360.com
- BOE Report (Reuters), "US crude and gasoline stocks fall, distillates rise, EIA says," October 21, 2026 — boereport.com
- DTN/Progressive Farmer, "EIA: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 12% on the Year," October 21, 2026 — dtnpf.com
- RFD-TV, "DOE gives more biofuels a path toward 45Z," October 19, 2026 — rfdtv.com
- IRU, "Diesel: all indicators turning red," October 16, 2026 — iru.org
- Madison's Lumber Reporter, "Transportation issues dominated the lumber market in mid-October," October 21, 2026 — madisonsreport.com
- ScrapMonster, "Canadian lumber duties drop to 24.75%," October 19, 2026 — scrapmonster.com
- U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Construction, September 2026, October 20, 2026 — census.gov
- Packaging Corporation of America, third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 21, 2026 — sec.gov
- Packaging Dive, "Containerboard pricing flat in October," October 19, 2026 — packagingdive.com
- International Cement Review, "Holcim raises earnings outlook after stronger third quarter," October 23, 2026 — cemnet.com
- Martin Marietta, third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call announcement, October 21, 2026 — stockhouse.com
- Compass Minerals, fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 conference call announcement, October 21, 2026 — stockhouse.com
- RBN Energy, "US rig count unchanged at 603 as Uinta gains offset Permian, Haynesville," October 16, 2026 — rbnenergy.com
- The Coal Hub, "Global coal prices strengthen as Europe and Asia gain," October 19, 2026 — thecoalhub.com
- Fertilizer Daily, "MIAX fertilizer futures go live, NOLA delivery," October 21, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Fertilizer Daily, Hormuz and S&P Global report, October 20, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Fertilizer Daily, "Hormuz fertilizer plan, UN food crisis," October 20, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Fertilizer Daily, StoneX fourth-quarter fertilizer outlook, October 22, 2026 — fertilizerdaily.com
- Progressive Railroading, "CSX tests drone technology for enhanced rail car inspections," October 19, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Railway Age, "R.J. Corman Names Kyle Khadivi Vice President of Transload," October 20, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Railway News, "Port of Philadelphia secures $837M intermodal expansion," October 18, 2026 — railwaynews.net
- Railway Age, "Canada Invests C$254MM in Saint John Trade Corridor," October 22, 2026 — railwayage.com
- KBIA, "New grant to bring autonomous railcars to Columbia," October 23, 2026 — kbia.org
- Progressive Railroading, "Pinsly Railroad Co. adds Illinois-based short line to portfolio," October 22, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, "ASLRRA secures $5.6M CRISI grant for Short Line Training Center," October 21, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, "Reading & Northern advances signal installation work," October 21, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Federal Register (PHMSA), "Hazardous Materials: Notice of Actions on Special Permits," 91 FR 66196, October 19, 2026 — federalregister.gov
- Progressive Railroading, "FreightCar America acquires Trinity Equipment Co.," October 22, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Progressive Railroading, "Wabtec Corp. posts Q3 results, increases full-year guidance," October 21, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Surface Transportation Board, third-quarter 2026 formal and informal service complaint report — stb.gov
- Railway Age, "FRA Awards $2.3B in Rail Grants for Infrastructure, Safety and Workforce Training," October 20, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Progressive Railroading, "Virginia board raises ceiling for rail grant program," October 20, 2026 — progressiverailroading.com
- Railway Age, "Virginia Boosts Maximum Award for Truck Diversion Grants," October 19, 2026 — railwayage.com
- Surface Transportation Board, Major Railroad Mergers resources, FD 36873 — stb.gov
- Federal Register, "Union Pacific Corporation and Union Pacific Railroad Company—Control—Norfolk Southern Corporation," August 20, 2026 — federalregister.gov
- Railway Age, "Hunter Harrison's Real Lesson for the UP–NS Merger," October 19, 2026 — railwayage.com
- North American Rail Shippers Association, NARS and regional meeting calendar, May 14, 2026 — railshippers.com
- American Journal of Transportation, "North American Rail Shippers to convene November 11–13 in Washington, DC" — ajot.com
- ASLRRA, upcoming events — aslrra.org
- RailMarket, railway events calendar — railmarket.com
- S&P Global, TPM27 — spglobal.com
About The Interchange Weekly
A weekly brief on North American freight rail markets, published every Friday by Rail-Industrial Partners, covering rail volumes by commodity and by carrier, terminal and facility development, and the commodity markets that move by rail.
Method
Volume data comes from AAR's weekly release, the carriers' own weekly reports and STB Part 1250 filings published through USDA AgTransport. AAR and STB count cars differently, so we keep them in separate tables. Market coverage draws on company filings, government data and the trade press, with sources cited in the text and listed at the end of each issue. We don't quote prices that are available only by subscription.
Corrections
We correct errors promptly and note the correction in the following issue. To report an error, or to request coverage of a commodity, contact us at rail-industrial.com.
About Rail-Industrial Partners
Rail-Industrial Partners is a specialized investment, operating and strategic advisory platform focused on the North American freight rail and rail-industrial sectors. The Interchange Weekly is a complimentary resource for shippers, railroads, investors and others who use freight rail transportation.
Disclaimer
The Interchange Weekly is an informational summary compiled from publicly available sources, published to bring a week's worth of freight rail reporting into one place. The underlying reporting belongs to the publishers cited, and their original articles give the full context. Rail-Industrial Partners claims no ownership of the underlying reporting. All trademarks, company names, railroad names and publication names are the property of their respective owners, and reference to any company, railroad, agency or publication does not imply affiliation with or endorsement by Rail-Industrial Partners.
Statistical data is drawn from the Association of American Railroads' weekly public release, from carrier weekly reports and from Surface Transportation Board Part 1250 filings as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Figures are reproduced as published and have not been independently audited. Passages labeled "Our Take" are market interpretation and opinion, not statements of fact.
While reasonable care is taken in preparing this report, Rail-Industrial Partners makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of any information contained in it, and accepts no liability for any loss or decision arising from reliance on it. Nothing here constitutes investment, legal, regulatory, financial, commercial or operational advice, or an offer or solicitation of any kind. Check figures against the original source before acting on them.